Annex IV

Classification Scheme for Global Change Research

showing detailed categories for IHDP-relevant themes in italic type

STRUCTURES AND PROCESSES

1. Earth System Processes

1.1 Atmosphere

1.2 Biosphere

1.3 Cyrosphere

1.4 Hydrosphere

1.5 Lithosphere

1.6 Pedosphere

1.7 Coupled Systems and Biochemical Cycles

 

2. Social Processes and Institutions

2.1 Dimensions of Resource Use

2.1.1 demographic change, population dynamics

2.1.2 population and health

2.1.3 culture and education, life style, consumption patterns

2.1.4 structures of power, political systems

2.1.5 distribution of income, wealth

2.1.6 resource management

2.1.7 property rights, access to resources

2.1.8 employment, labour market, trade unions

2.1.9 eco-geographical patterns

2.2 Structures and Institutions

2.2.1 social organisation and cultural system (social coherence)

2.2.2 markets and regulations

2.2.3 government authorities, public institutions, public finance

2.2.4 national and international law and legislation

2.2.5 international agreements and organisations

2.2.6 international economic forces, trade and finance

2.2.7 interaction between civil society and public administration

2.2.8 North-South relations

2.3 Factors of Production and Technology

2.3.1 resources

2.3.1.1 non-renewables

2.3.1.2 renewables

2.3.2 infrastructure, public works

2.3.3 production techniques

2.3.4 energy supply and demand

2.3.5 waste disposal

2.3.6 management efficiency, productivity, organisational modernisation

2.3.7 employment, capacity utilisation

2.3.8 education and training

2.3.9 research and development, innovation

2.4 Public Perception, Assessment, and Behaviour

2.4.1 environmental behaviour and performance (individuals, groups, institutions)

2.4.2 traditional knowledge and experience, ethics

2.4.3 values, preferences, attitudes, expectations, aspirations, anxieties

2.4.4 well-being, quality of life, subsistence needs

2.4.5 processing of information, documentation

2.4.6 communication, social learning

2.5 Environmental Security and Stability

2.5.1 environmental degradation and population displacement

2.5.2 intra- and intergenerational equity

2.5.3 sustainable socio-economic development

 

DYNAMICS OF CHANGE

 

1. Past Global Changes

1.1 Paleoclimate and Environmental Variability

1.2 Climate System Sensitivity and Modelling

1.3 Historical Development of Societal-Nature Relations

1.3.1 aquatic systems

1.3.2 terrestrial ecosystems

 

2. Detection of Recent Trends

2.1 Analysis of Existing Time-series Data

2.2 Systematic Monitoring and Remote Sensing

2.3 Indicators of Global Change

2.3.1 (Paleo-) Indicators

2.3.2 Ecological Indicators

2.3.3 Socio-economic Indicators

2.3.4 Eco-geographical (spatial) Indicators

2.3.5 Other Indicators

 

3. Scenarios

3.1 Resources

3.2 Emissions

3.3 Future Climate Change

3.4 Land-Use Change

3.5 Socio-economic Systems

3.6 Life Style, Distributive Effects on Income and Wealth, Standard of Living, Equality of Opportunity

3.7 Political and Legal Systems

3.8 Other Types of Scenarios

 

CAUSES OF VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

1. Natural Causes

1.1 Internal Variability of Earth System Processes

1.2 External Forcings due to Non-Human Causes

 

2. Major Human Driving Forces

2.1 Land Use and Land Cover Change

2.1.1 key driving forces of land use maintenance and change

(e.g. population explosion and density, attitudes and values,

heritage laws and customs, migration, level of affluence,

state of technology, political economy, political structure)

2.1.2 systems of land use

(e.g. agriculture, forestry, fisheries, human settlement)

2.1.3 land cover consequences

(e.g. deforestation, loss in biodiversity, erosion)

2.1.4 competing demands and conflicts concerning resource use

2.2 Industrial and Economic Transformation

2.2.1 implementation and innovation of technology

2.2.2 institutional set-up

2.2.3 structure of production and consumption

2.2.4 spatial order of resource allocation

2.2.5 international economic forces, trade and finance patterns

2.2.6 waste disposal management and recycling

2.2.7 transport

2.2.8 communication

2.3 Energy Production and Consumption

2.3.1 energy carriers

2.3.1.1 non-renewables (e.g. fossil, nuclear)

2.3.1.2 renewables (e.g. solar)

2.3.2 energy supply

2.3.3 energy demand

2.3.4 associated trajectories of future emissions of greenhouse gases

2.4 World View

2.4.1 globalisation, growth policies, mass consumption

2.4.2 mobility, tourism

2.4.3 living standards

2.4.4 role of ideologies

(e.g. utilitarianism, individualism, communitarianism,

collectivism)

 

IMPACTS OF CHANGE

1. Impacts on Earth System Processes

1.1 Atmosphere

1.2 Biosphere

1.3 Cyrosphere

1.4 Hydrosphere

1.5 Lithosphere

1.6 Pedosphere

1.7 Coupled Systems and Biochemical Cycles

 

2. Impacts on Human Being, Sanitation and Quality of Life

2.1 Human Being

2.1.1 respiratory system

2.1.2 digestive system

2.1.3 skin

2.1.4 defence system (immunology, allergology)

2.1.5 human environment interactions

2.2 Sanitation, Quality of Life

2.2.1 water quality and supply

2.2.2 air quality

2.2.3 soil contamination and protection

2.2.4 food/nutrition, plant and life stock

2.2.5 psychological stress, noise, well-feeling

2.2.6 diseases and epidemics

 

3. Impacts on Social Processes and Institutions

3.1 Dimensions of Resource Use

3.1.1 demographic change, population dynamics

3.1.2 population and health

3.1.3 culture and education, life style, consumption patterns

3.1.4 structures of power, political systems

3.1.5 distribution of income and wealth

3.1.6 resource management

3.1.7 property rights, access to resources

3.1.8 employment, labour market, trade unions

3.1.9 eco-geographical patterns

3.2 Structures and Institutions

3.2.1 social organisation and cultural system (social coherence)

3.2.2 markets and regulations

3.2.3 government authorities, public institutions and public finance

3.2.4 national and international law and legislation

3.2.5 international agreements and organisations

3.2.6 trade and finance

3.2.7 interaction between civil society and public administration

3.2.8 North-South relations

3.3 Factors of Production and Technology

3.3.1 resources

3.3.1.1 non-renewables

3.3.1.2 renewables

3.3.2 infrastructure, public works

3.3.3 production techniques

3.3.4 energy supply and demand

3.3.5 waste disposal

3.3.6 management efficiency, productivity, organisational modernisation

3.3.7 employment, capacitiy utilisation

3.3.8 research and development, innovation

3.3.9 education and training

3.4 Public Perception, Assessment and Behaviour

3.4.1 environmental behaviour and performance

(individuals, groups, institutions)

3.4.2 traditional knowledge and experience, ethics

3.4.3 values, preferences, attitudes, expectations,

aspirations, anxieties

3.4.4 well-being, quality of life, subsistence needs

3.4.5 processing of information, documentation

3.4.6 communication, social learning

3.5 Environmental Security and Stability

3.5.1 environmental degradation and population displacement

3.5.2 intra- and intergenerational equity

3.5.3 sustainable socio-economic development

 

RESPONSE STRATEGIES AND POLICY FORMATION AND IMPLEMENTATION

1. Response Strategies and Their Environmental Impact

1.1 Prevention

(remove or remedy a cause of global environmental change)

1.2 Mitigation

(interfere with the causal relationship between causes and effects)

1.3 Adaptation to Change, Risk Reduction

(reduce the impact of the effects of global environmental change)

1.4 Permissiveness

(no deliberate action)

 

2. Scope of Measures, Activity of the Subsidiarity Principle

2.1 Empowerment of Social Agents, Capacity Building

2.1.1 individuals and groups

2.1.2 organisations, (I)GOs

2.1.3 institutions, (I)NGOs

2.2 Concerted or Co-ordinated Action, International Co-operation

2.2.1 design and implementation of regional and national agreements

2.2.2 North-South co-operation

 

2. Introduction, Integration and Enhancement of Socio-economic and

Ecologically Sustainable Development

2.1 Land Use Planning

2.2 Changes in Settlement Structure, Population Density and

Eco-regional Patterns

2.3 Changes in Resource Intensity and Environmental Impact

of Economic Activities, Changes in the Organisation of Production,

Changes in the Spatial Distribution of Production and Consumption

(Decentralisation)

2.4 Technological Innovation, Technology Transfer, Productivity

2.5 Environmental Education, Ethics

2.6 Changes in Consumption Patterns and Life Styles

(Sustainable Consumption)

2.7 Health and Well-being

 

METHODOLOGICAL FOCUS

1. Epistemology

 

2. Development of Technical Instruments and Technology

 

3. Policy Analysis

 

4. Interdisciplinary Co-operation, Sociology of Science

 

5. Improvement of Assessment, Scenario Capacities, Predictability Methods

 

6. Development of Planning Tools

 

7. Modelling and Integrated Assessment